Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.581283 1.793268 2.019258 2.277680 2.564568 2.872841 3.228705
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.349919 1.650843 1.992579 2.407709 2.896570 3.452097 4.129203
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.138590 1.496351 1.927638 2.481831 3.170605 3.993703 5.046467
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.010593 1.422619 1.948174 2.659754 3.588936 4.750970 6.302508
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.835093 1.261934 1.838711 2.661839 3.790655 5.266536 7.320682
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.706155 1.143819 1.769239 2.707806 4.055711 5.892403 8.548175
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.590130 1.024965 1.681895 2.717567 4.272803 6.477349 9.782096
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.519607 0.963527 1.669755 2.834583 4.655803 7.330118 11.469148
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.453751 0.898110 1.642019 2.924168 5.008184 8.172957 13.220858
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.390479 0.825443 1.591683 2.970875 5.299094 8.951198 14.946711
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.338658 0.763678 1.550419 3.026737 5.610072 9.787725 16.832771
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.280746 0.678218 1.453430 2.972621 5.731182 10.333043 18.307383
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.226750 0.590904 1.342694 2.886249 5.801290 10.825620 19.782295
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.193025 0.539888 1.294547 2.911135 6.073900 11.686188 21.944864
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.160921 0.484572 1.227886 2.890469 6.261063 12.418420 23.956347
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.143542 0.461367 1.226643 3.003397 6.716652 13.668970 26.971559
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.117212 0.407122 1.145092 2.934309 6.806637 14.263087 28.871926
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.098800 0.369416 1.095157 2.926802 7.020067 15.105584 31.289092
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.082149 0.331529 1.036995 2.891226 7.170049 15.838890 33.559682
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.073086 0.314890 1.030546 2.976573 7.588296 17.128433 36.969847
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.064330 0.296399 1.015467 3.038639 7.961885 18.358688 40.352229
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.055536 0.274605 0.986563 3.061358 8.248634 19.434556 43.506516
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.048373 0.256344 0.964214 3.097796 8.571036 20.609226 46.936187